On June 17, the steel market predicted that the bi

On June 17, the steel market forecast: steel billets closed up at the weekend, and the downward force of steel prices may be weakened

I. macro briefing

1. IMF: there are downward risks in the U.S. economy, and there are challenges in exiting QE. On Friday evening, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its annual report on the financial situation of Member States, pointing out that the U.S. economic outlook is "slightly downward", and there are many challenges for the Federal Reserve to withdraw from quantitative easing (QE)

2. US industrial output in May was flat month on month, worse than expected. The Federal Reserve announced that US industrial output was flat month on month in May. According to a Bloomberg survey, economists expect an average increase of 0.2%. The month on month decline in industrial output in April was revised from 0.5% to 0.4%. The capacity utilization rate in May was 77.6%, lower than the 77.9% expected by the market, and the previous value was 77.8%

in March and may, the new foreign exchange share plummeted by more than 70%, and experts suggested reducing the deposit reserve ratio. Recently, the "RMB credit income and expenditure statement of financial institutions" of the central bank showed that as of the end of May, the foreign exchange share of China's financial institutions had reached 2742.951 billion yuan, and the foreign exchange share increased by 66.862 billion yuan in May

4. China's macroeconomic analysis and forecast report predicts that this year's GDP growth will reach 8.1%. When attending the China macroeconomic Forum (mid-2013) held on the 15th, many experts believed that accelerating reform in various fields is the key to solving the current macroeconomic dilemma, and we must vigorously promote urbanization reform, financial sector reform, fiscal and tax system reform in the second half of the year. China's macroeconomic analysis and forecast report (hereinafter referred to as the report) released on the same day proposed that the GDP growth rate in 2013 would reach 8.1%

the growth rate of industrial power consumption slowed down in May and may. The power consumption data released by the National Energy Administration last week showed that the growth rate of industrial power consumption in May was 4.67%, which was nearly 3 percentage points slower than that of the previous month

II. Relevant disk summary

the US stock market closed lower on Friday. The International Monetary Fund lowered its forecast for U.S. economic growth in 2014 and urged the Federal Reserve to carefully withdraw from the stimulus plan. Before the FOMC meeting this week, market sentiment was cautious. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 105.90 points, or 0.70%, to 15070.18; The S & P 500 index fell 9.65 points, or 0.59%, to 1626.71. Gold futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $9.8 to close at $1387.6 per ounce. Crude oil futures for July delivery rose $1.16 to close at $97.85 a barrel. The closing price of copper on the LME floor was $7085/ton, up $35/ton from the previous trading day

III. billet price trend

early on the 14th: yesterday, Tangshan ordinary square billet fell by 10. What are the uses of today's anchor fatigue testing machine and the functional characteristics of the equipment? In the morning, it was delivered to jie2920 in Changli, Tangshan Xinglong/Guoyi factory 2900, including tax; The bare price of traders is about 2790. Yesterday, the winning price of Yangang Pufang billet was 2893, down 26 from the previous period and 17 lower than the current market price

IV. ore price trend

last week, the domestic iron concentrate market basically maintained a weak consolidation. Due to the stagnation of the market during the Dragon Boat Festival holiday at the beginning of the week, there was no transaction in the market, and a small number of early orders were being shipped normally; After the holiday, both the buyer and the seller were in a wait-and-see state, and the overall situation was still weak. Due to the relatively restrained replenishment behavior of steel mills in the early stage, there are still many inquiries after the Dragon Boat Festival, and the price is relatively stable. The mainstream market price of 66% acid powder dry basis excluding tax in Tangshan is 990 yuan. At present, the mainstream quotation of 63.5/63% Indian fine ore in the external market of imported ore is about US $101. The quotation of 63.5% Indian fine ore in Tianjin port is 830 yuan/ton; The quotation of 61.5% PB fine ore in Qingdao port is 800 yuan/ton. On the last trading day, Platts 62%, electroplated parts should be sprayed with antirust oil $113.75, +$3.00 once a week

v. coke price trend

last week, the coke market remained stable. Before the Dragon Boat Festival, Tangshan Steel Plant lowered the coke purchase price, Hegang reduced the price by 80 to 1440 in June to the factory for acceptance, and the steel plant continued to maintain low inventory operation, still focusing on price reduction. The "purchase price of secondary coke" of Han Xing steel plant is expected to be accepted by the factory at 1220, but it is still under negotiation due to the difficulty of delivery of the coking plant, and they have been accepted by the factory for the time being. At present, the first-class metallurgical coke in Shanxi is 1300 yuan/ton; The ex factory tax price of quasi first-class metallurgical coke is 1250 yuan; Hebei Handan secondary metallurgical coke 1230 yuan; The ex factory tax price of secondary metallurgical coke in Huaibei area is 1280 yuan; The ex factory tax price of secondary metallurgical coke in Zibo is 1280 yuan

VI. close of thread hot coil

close on June 14, the closing price of 25mm grade III deformed steel bar in Beijing market was 3410 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the price of the previous day; Grade III deformed steel bars in Shanghai market were 3190 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day; Grade III deformed steel bar in Guangzhou market was 3630 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous day

at the close of June 14, the closing price of 5.5mmq235 hot rolled coil in Shanghai market was 3410 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day; The closing price of hot coil in Tianjin market was 3350 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the price of the previous day; Lecong hot coil market closed at 3530 yuan/ton, unchanged from the price of the previous day

on June 14, rb1308, the main contract of hot coil electronic disk, opened at 3417 yuan. After the opening, it fluctuated at a low level, with a maximum of 3426 yuan and a minimum of 33 yuan, realizing 97 yuan for multiple use of one machine. Finally, it closed at 3418 yuan, up 3 yuan from the previous trading day, and finally closed at the crosshairs. The trading volume was 150510 hands, slightly larger than the previous trading day, and the position was 212030 hands, a decrease of 440 hands. Today's price pressure point is expected to be 3467 yuan/ton, and the support point is expected to be 3400 yuan/ton

VIII. Spot price forecast

it is estimated that the price of 25mm grade III deformed steel bar in Beijing market today will fall by 10 yuan/ton to 3400 yuan/ton; The quotation of grade III deformed steel bar in Shanghai market fell by 10 yuan/ton to 3180 yuan/ton; The market price of grade III deformed steel bar in Guangzhou market fell by 30 yuan/ton, and the quotation was 3600 yuan/ton

it is expected that the mainstream quotation of 5.5mmq235 hot rolled coil in Shanghai market today will fall by 10 yuan/ton, at about 3400 yuan/ton; The listing price of hot coil in Tianjin market fell by 10 yuan/ton to 3340 yuan/ton; Lecong's hot coil quotation fell by 10 yuan/ton, and the market quotation was about 3520 yuan/ton